What is PCIe 5.0?

PCIe (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express), also known as the high-speed computer data transmission bus, is a pathway for data interaction between devices on the server motherboard. Server upgrades not only involve upgrades to the CPU and chipset, but also reflect the progress of all components in the entire platform, including the upgrading of the PCIe bus. 

When Intel upgraded the CPU from Cooper Lake to Ice Lake in the second half of 2020, the bus standard was upgraded from PCIe 3.0 to PCIe 4.0. When the chip was upgraded to Sapphire Rapids in the first quarter of 2021, the bus standard was upgraded to PCIe 5.0. In the context of emerging computing such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing, the demand for server data exchange rates has significantly increased, and PCIe 5.0 is expected to become the mainstream of the server PCB market.

During the iterative upgrade process of ordinary servers, an increase in bus level means an increase in data transmission rates. According to the PCIe bus standard guide published by Intel, the PCIe 4.0 speed is 16Gbps/lane, and the corresponding PCIe 5.0 speed will be increased to 32Gbps/lane. In other words, upgrading from PCIe 4.0 to PCIe 5.0 will double the server transmission rate.

Behind the high transmission rate is ultra-low signal loss and higher-level PCB

Improving transmission efficiency requires efficient routing layout and higher-level PCB boards as mainboards, which reduces the degree of interference between signals. After iteration, the number of layers of PCB mainboards for ordinary servers will be greatly increased. According to industry data, the PCB materials for PCIe4.0 servers such as Intel Whitley and AMD Zen3 are 12-16 layers, while the PCB materials for PCIe5.0 servers such as Intel Eagle Stream and AMD Zen4 are 16-20 layers.

The value of the server's PCB for PCIe 5.0 will reach 2777 yuan.

Based on the disassembly method mentioned earlier, we selected the advanced 2U ordinary server Huawei 2288H V6 (dual-processor server, PCIe 4.0) as a representative of ordinary servers. Through disassembly and analysis, we estimated the PCB usage area of ordinary servers to be 0.630 square meters. According to industry research, the PCB board specifications of the functional modules of ordinary servers are not significantly different from those of the CPU motherboard and accessories in AI servers. Therefore, we estimated the standalone value to be 2425 yuan. Correspondingly, the main value increase of PCIe 5.0 is on the motherboard. According to industry research, the price of PCIe 5.0 motherboard is expected to increase by 66% to 100% compared to PCIe 4.0 motherboard. We conservatively estimate a 66% increase, so the PCIe 5.0 motherboard will increase to 878 yuan, resulting in an increase of 351 yuan in the total PCB value to 2777 yuan.

According to IDC data, global server shipments in 2023-2025 are expected to be 14.93 million yuan, 16.26 million yuan, and 17.63 million units, respectively. Excluding AI server shipments, ordinary server shipments will reach 14.68 million yuan, 15.76 million yuan, and 16.63 million units in the same period. Assuming that the penetration rate of PCIe 5.0 reaches 20%, 40%, and 60% in 2023-2025, respectively, and assuming that the value of the PCB for PCIe 5.0 servers is 2777 yuan per unit and the value of the PCB for non-PCIe 5.0 servers is 2425 yuan per unit, the corresponding global market for ordinary servers in 2023-2025 will reach 36.6 billion yuan, 40.4 billion yuan, and 43.8 billion yuan, respectively.

Article reference source：AI带来PCB增量，强α者率先受益-国金证券[樊志远,邓小路,刘妍雪]

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